The TOI looked at each of these options to calculate each team’s chances of advancing to the playoffs. As of Saturday morning, May 14, MI and CSK have been two teams that cannot qualify for the playoffs.
With Friday’s win, the PBKS significantly improved the probability of entering the playoffs. Among all the remaining teams fighting for the first 4 place, KKR has the blackest opportunity to qualify for the next round. GT is so far the only team that has officially qualified for the playoffs. This is what all the options look like right now:
1) MI does not count on placement in the playoffs
2) CSK joined MI as the second team to be eliminated
3) KKR’s chances for fourth place improved slightly to 9.4%. The best he can hope for is a split third place with four to six teams or a split fourth place with three to five rival teams.
4) DC’s chances of getting into the top four slots have improved to 46.9%, but at best it can hope for a joint second place that it will share with three to five teams.
5) PBKS ‘chances of placing among the top four have also improved to 46.9%, but like DC, it can no longer lead the scoreboard.
6) The SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four have also improved to 28.1%, although even they cannot finish at the top after the league phase
7) RCB’s chances of getting into one of the top four slots fell to 77.3%. They also can’t lead the points table after Friday’s loss. At best, they can be second – a place they could share with three to five teams
8) RR has a 92.2% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points. But they can still drop to sixth if they lose the remaining matches
9) LSG in its first IPL season is now certain to reach the top three in points, but this does not guarantee qualification, as it can be tied first with three teams, second with up to five teams or joint third with up to four teams.
10) GT, also in its first IPL season, has qualified and cannot do worse than a triple draw for first place, finishing third at a net pace.
11) In short, bet that GT, LSG, RR and RCB will get into the playoffs, with PBKS and DC having a relatively small but still real chance of pushing RR or RCB out of the playoffs. Anything else would be a long run.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 1 024 current possible result combinations, with 10 matches left. We assumed that for each given match the chances of winning on both sides were equal. Then we look at how many combinations each team placed in one of the top four positions by points. This gives us our probability number. To give a specific example, out of 1,024 possible combinations of results, the RR currently ends first to fourth in points in 944 combinations. This means a probability of 92.2%. We do not take into account net operating rates or “no results” because it is impossible to predict them in advance.
Check back for our updated forecasts on Sunday (May 15) morning, which will reflect the outcome of Saturday’s match.